Global Gas Prices Surge: Europe +56% WoW, Asia +46% WoW, China CFR +86% WoW

THe impact of the geopolitical conflict on global gas prices is emerging at an alarming pace. For the week ending March 6, 2026, the three major global natural gas benchmarks showed the following week-on-week increases: European TTF rose 56.3%, East Asian JKM rose 46.5%, and China's LNG CFR price soared 86.8%. Meanwhile, the US Henry Hub price fell slightly by 3.5%, highlighting regional market divergence.

This round of price surges stems from a dual shock: first, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global LNG passes (with over 80% destined for Asian markets and over 10% for European markets); second, QatarEnergy's complete production halt following attacks.

Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that to compensate for the massive supply gap, European gas prices must remain high for an extended period to trigger fuel-switching mechanisms. The "gas-to-oil" switching range is currently at EUR 55/MWh (fuel oil) at the bottom and EUR 80/MWh (distillate) at the top, with current gas prices now fully within the oil substitution range.

In the Chinese market, imported LNG CFR prices soared 86.8% week-on-week to RMB 4.9 per cubic meter, while domestic LNG ex-factory prices also rose 20.5% to RMB 2.9 per cubic meter. In 2025, Qatari LNG sources accounted for 6% of China's total natural gas supply, and this supply interruption will directly impact China's import structure.

Price transmission is already evident at the industrial level. Goldman Sachs reports initial signs of industrial natural gas demand destruction in some emerging Asian markets, while European gas-fired power generation output increased 8.2% week-on-week to balance supply and demand.