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Goldman Sachs: Qatar LNG Outage Exceeds Expectations, Exports May Be "Zero" Until Late March
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Goldman Sachs: Qatar LNG Outage Exceeds Expectations, Exports May Be "Zero" Until Late March

2026-03-10

The global LNG market is facing an unexpected and severe impact from the ongoing Middle East Conflict. International investment bank Goldman Sachs recently warned that the export halt by Qatar, a core global LNG supplier, will be significantly prolonged. Exports are expected to remain at "zero" levels until late March and may not fully recover to normal levels until May.

QatarEnergy previously announced a complete halt to LNG and related product production following an attack on its facilities. Its Ras Laffan plant has an annual capacity of 77-82 million tonnes, accounting for approximately 20% of global LNG supply. Goldman Sachs has significantly adjusted its export timeline expectations, projecting Qatar's annualized LNG deliveries to plummet to 18 million tonnes per year and 43 million tonnes per year in March and April respectively—far below the pre-conflict forecasts of 74 million tonnes and 76 million tonnes.

This sustained supply disruption is directly driving up global gas prices. Goldman Sachs has raised its Q2 2026 natural gas price forecasts across the board: the European benchmark TTF price has been significantly raised from EUR 45/MWh to EUR 63/MWh, while the Asian benchmark JKM price has been raised from USD 16/mmBtu to USD 23/mmBtu. As of March 6, European TTF prices and Asian JKM prices had actually surged by 64.3% and 46.5% respectively.

Notably, Goldman Sachs points out that in price-sensitive emerging Asian markets such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, initial signs of industrial demand destruction are beginning to appear. This means high gas prices are forcing some industrial enterprises to reduce production or shut down entirely.

For importers, the widening regional price spreads present arbitrage opportunities. The price spreads between the US-Europe and US-Asia have significantly widened compared to pre-conflict levels. Sellers with US long-term contract resources can now achieve a spread of approximately USD 2.3 per million Btu when reselling to Europe.